FiveThirtyEight posited that quarterbacks are much more valuable than any other position in the first round. I was curious if players drafted in the first round are much more valuable than other players of the same position who are drafted in later rounds. In other words, is it a waste to draft an offensive lineman, for example, in the first round, since offensive linemen drafted later are roughly as likely to succeed in the NFL? How about quarterbacks? They may be more valuable than any other position in the first round, but are they still more valuable in rounds two and three?

One of the biggest considerations in answering these questions is how to define value. There's no one statistic defining a 'successful' draft pick—some players may be less valuable throughout their careers but fill a need in the moment for the team that drafted them—but a few different measures can approximate value in different ways. I primarily used Career Approximate Value from Pro Football Reference, but also looked at other statistics like the total number of games played.

First, I considered the value of players of each position drafted in a given round compared with the average value of players of that position. For quarterbacks drafted in the first round, for example, I calculated the average value of quarterbacks drafted in the first round and subtracted the average value of quarterbacks taken across all rounds. This showed that quarterbacks indeed have a higher average value when taken in the first round; however, it also revealed that a quarterback's expected value drops immediately once he falls to the second round or later.

This shows that drafting a quarterback in the first round has high potential return, and that waiting until later rounds to draft a QB means a team can expect significantly lower value from that pick. It seems that teams know this already: significantly more quarterbacks are drafted in the first round than in any other round.

On the other side of the spectrum, cornerbacks and safeties have the lowest value over average in the first round yet the highest in the later rounds. This suggests that drafting cornerbacks and safeties in the first round is a mistake, as those taken in later rounds have similar expected value.

Finally, with these charts it's worth noting that a single player with extremely high value can skew the results. Sixth-round selection Tom Brady, winner of seven Super Bowls and selection to fourteen Pro Bowls, singlehandedly raises the average value of sixth-round picks well above that of fifth- and seventh-round picks.

We can also look at draft trends across time. Aggregating over all positions, the average value of early-round picks has been climbing while the average value of later-round picks has been falling. The expected value of a first round pick and a seventh round pick were much more equal in the 1960s and 1970s than they are today. This may be because teams are getting better at navigating the draft—with more footage and college games which are becoming increasingly similar to NFL games, it's easier to estimate a player's success before he's drafted.

I also looked at each team's long-term draft success, calculating the total value over round average of each team's picks since 1970. By this metric, the Steelers have drafted exceptionally well. Other teams with historically good records, like the Cowboys and Packers, are also near the top of the list. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Cleveland Browns are the worst drafters in the league, accompanied in the gutter with other perennial disappointments like the Titans and Jaguars.

Even though teams with better records get worse picks in the draft (thus suggesting there might be a negative correlation between team and draft success), this effect is mitigated in the long term. It seems that instead of successful teams struggling in the draft, teams who draft better have more success. Most teams who have drafted above-average players from 1970 through 2020 have win-loss records above 50%; most teams who have drafted worse players have below-average win-loss records.

Finally, Pro Football Reference provides information on the school from which each player was drafted. Overall, we can see that the share of players drafted from Power 5 conferences (the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, and ACC) has increased over time. However, it's worth noting that these conferences have realigned multiple times over this time span—the number of Power 5 schools has also increased over time.

The difference is most pronounced in the first and second round. Early-round selections are much more likely to come from Power 5 schools than they were in 1970, while later rounds continue to feature more players from non-Power 5 schools. The SEC is the biggest contributor to these trends—by 2020, 40% of first and second round selections come from the SEC, while the SEC accounts for less than 20% of later-round selections.